NBA best bets: Expect a low score in both Game 7 on Sunday

NBA best bets: Expect a low score in both Game 7 on Sunday

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now on the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the playoffs. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Latest odds:

Less than 207

Much of this information will apply to both games on Sunday. Spoiler alert: we choose the underside of each one. Here are the combined point totals from the last 12 games 7:

  • 2021 Hawks-76ers: 199
  • 2021 Bucks Nets: 216 (OT)
  • Clippers-Mavericks 2021: 237
  • Nuggets-Clippers 2020: 193
  • Celtics-Raptors 2020: 179
  • Thunder Rockets 2020: 206
  • Jazz nuggets 2020: 156
  • 2019 Raptors-76ers: 182
  • Blazers-Nuggets 2019: 196
  • Nuggets-Spurs 2019: 176
  • 2018 Rocket Warriors: 193
  • Cavs-Celtics 2018: 166

The average point total here is 191.6 points. Only three of those games cracked 200 points. Go back and expand the sample if desired. Throughout history, match 7s have tended to be very, very weak.

There are several plausible explanations for this. I will suggest a few. The tension at the start and end of games tends to limit the score in the first and last minutes. Both defenders have spent six games getting to know the opposing attack, so it’s very difficult to throw plays at them that they haven’t seen before. Rotations tend to be shortened to laughable degrees, with top players often playing the full 48 minutes if necessary. Players create most of their team’s shots. If they are too tired to generate offense, their whole team will struggle to score.

Now consider this in the context of Bucks-Celtics, in particular. The average point total in the series is 205.5. The total points line is set at 207, and that doesn’t take into account the typical Game 7 low. That doesn’t take into account the exhaustion these teams will face on Sunday afternoon after battling Friday night in another city. He expects Giannis Antetokounmpo to continue carrying an unrealistic burden. The Bucks star has attempted 27 or more field goals in seven career playoff games. Five have been in this series alone. Sooner or later, these teams are just going to run out of gas. Expect a low score match 7 as a result. The choice: under 207

Latest odds:

Less than 205

This series has evolved in a slightly different direction than the Bucks-Celtics. He started scoring incredibly high, but the last four games have only averaged 199.5 points. The Suns are shooting 41% from 3 and the Mavericks aren’t far behind at 38.5%. If we’re expecting a drop in shooting due to Game 7 nerfs, especially from Dallas as a road team, it just doesn’t seem likely that this game will be in the 100s unless Luka Doncic does. becomes absolutely nuclear. The choice: under 205

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